The 2025 Atlantic storm season is expected to see 17 named tropical storms, including nine hurricanes, according to Colorado State University climatologists.
Four of the nine storms that have been forecasted are expected to become “major” Category 3 or stronger, with wind speeds of at least 111 mph.
The anticipated number of storms is higher than the 14.4 named storms that occurred on average between 1991 and 2020.
The estimate of nine storms also above the 7.2 average for that time frame. The forecasted number of major storms also above the average of 3.2.
“When waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic,” the CSU team stated Thursday in a news release.
“These conditions will likely lead to a continuation of above-average water temperatures across most of the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2025 hurricane season,” according to the team.
“A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water” and “leads to a lower atmospheric pressure and more unstable atmosphere,” the storm-forecasting team stated. “Both conditions favor hurricane formation.”
A possible El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean could impact storm activity in the Atlantic, according to the CSU researchers.
According to the CSU team, an El Nino event is a naturally occurring warming of Pacific seas that usually increases upper-level westerly winds into the tropical Atlantic and across the Caribbean.
“These increase upper-level winds result in increased vertical wind shear, disfavoring Atlantic hurricane season formation and intensification,” according to the CSU team.
“The absence of these conditions, as we anticipate this year, is generally associated with hurricane-conducive upper-level wind conditions across the tropical Atlantic,” the forecasting team continued.
According to the CSU team, the likelihood of a significant hurricane making landfall throughout the entire U.S. coastline is 51%, higher than the average of 43% from 1990 to 2020.
With a 33% likelihood of making landfall on the Gulf Coast and a 26% risk of hitting somewhere along the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, the Gulf Coast is the most vulnerable to significant hurricanes in the United States.
The forecast team projects a 56% chance of a significant hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean, more than the 47% historical average.
The Atlantic storm season projection from AccuWeather, which was released last week, calls for 13 to 18 named storms, including seven to ten hurricanes.
Officially, the Atlantic storm season begins on June 1 and ends on November 30.
This information has been sourced from UPI.
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