A brushy peak where the Palisades Fire started just after 10:30 a.m. on Tuesday holds the key to finding out what started the fire, which is still going strong.
Still trying to figure out what started the fire, but experts say it’s easy to rule out lightning, which is a regular cause of wildfires. This week, there were no storms in the area. There don’t seem to be any power lines or transformers in the area near the Temescal Ridge Trail, which rules out another possible reason.
That leaves people as the cause of most flames. But did someone set it on fire? While four experts were asked about it by NBC News, they said it was possible but more likely than not, the fires were not set on purpose.
“This is what we call rough, inaccessible terrain,” said Rick Crawford, who used to be the Los Angeles Fire Department’s company chief. “Firestarters aren’t likely to go 500 feet off the trail, through trees and brush, start a fire, and then run away.”
Forests on the edges of Los Angeles are always on fire, and a lot of the time, homeless people start them by accident. Fires almost never get big enough to cause damage because there aren’t any strong winds. The fast-moving fires that have burned big parts of Los Angeles this week were made possible by strong winds and dry land.
Scott Fischer, a former federal police arson investigator, said, “You don’t need a group of arsonists to go out and start fires; nature will do that for you.”
“There are arsonists out there,” he said. “But is there a group of them right now running around Los Angeles?” “Not likely.”
However, copycat burning is a real thing. The experts said it wouldn’t be a surprise if one of the smaller fires that started after the Palisades fire was set on purpose.
A former wildland fire detective who now works as an instructor, Terry Taylor, said, “When you have a big fire event like this in Los Angeles, it sometimes makes people want to go outside and start a fire.” “It looks like something else….” From time to time, it does happen.
Taylor and the other experts said that answers probably won’t come any time soon because proving fire usually takes a long time.
Eaton Fire
Experts say it’s not likely that someone set the Eaton Fire, which was the second biggest fire in Los Angeles since records began. It exploded on Tuesday night in an area east of Altadena where a lot of high-voltage power lines are hanging in the air.
Based on the area and the weather, the fire experts said that power lines were their first idea. Winds that whip around can make the lines hit each other, releasing small balls of very hot metal.
“If the ground is really dry and the wind is blowing, poof, you have a fire,” said Ed Nordskog, a former detective from the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department who worked for many years looking into people who set fires.
But that’s only one possible outcome. Norskog said it’s also possible that someone using a camping stove, car, or lawn mower that threw a hot spark onto dry grass and started it.
As for the chance that it was set on purpose, Nordskog said it was not likely.
He said, “Most of the time, these fires are not started on purpose.” “There is no evidence that winds bring out arsonists.”
“Inch by inch”
Experts say that figuring out what caused a fire is a very difficult and specialized task.
The first step is to figure out where it all started. Burn marks and charred pieces of trash can be very helpful in figuring out what happened.
Next is the part of the process that requires the most work and attention to detail. At the scene of the crime, the police will usually use string to make a grid. They will then crawl around on their hands and knees looking for trails or other signs.
Metal detectors, magnifying glasses, and even binoculars are tools that the police often use to help them look.
Norskog said, “It will take hours because they’ll go inch by inch.” “It’s not fun.”
When looking into the Eaton Fire, officials are likely to use magnets to help them find the small, melted metal pieces that could have been thrown off by power lines if they hit each other. Nordskog said that just because the metal was there doesn’t mean that’s how the fire started.
“You still need to find out what started the fire or if the spark from the power lines came from something that was already on fire,” he said. “When there is an investigation, there are a lot of things going on. Anyone can tell you right away what started the fire; they saw it.
In the event that authorities discover proof that someone started the fire, they must then figure out if it was an accident, carelessness, or an act of intent.
John Abatzoglou, a climatology professor at the University of California, Merced, looked at Los Angeles County government fire statistics from the past 30 years. This chart shows that from 1992 to 2020, most wildfires were caused by accidents involving vehicles and other tools.
In an email, he said, “More than 95% of these are fires started by people.” “Some fires are started on purpose, but most fires started by people are not.”
“The best player in the world”
A group of people in Woodland Hills arrested a guy they thought was setting a trash fire on Thursday, which made people on social media talk about the idea of arsonists setting fires in Los Angeles. The man was caught, but cops said Friday that there wasn’t enough evidence to charge him with setting the fire. He was caught for breaking the terms of his probation, which is a felony.
Besides the Palisades and Eaton fires, four other fires have broken out in Los Angeles. The reasons are still being looked into.
A task team of police has been formed to find out what started the fires. Authorities in Los Angeles, including the fire and police departments, the county sheriff’s department, and Cal Fire, are thought to be some of the best in the country. It is being led by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives.
“Everything is on the table,” Sheriff Robert Luna of Los Angeles County said at a news meeting on Saturday.
It might take a few days for detectives to figure out what started the fires. A person may be charged with a crime for a long time after the fire is found to have been started by them, according to experts.
Now that 24 people have died in the fire, the investigation into what happened will likely last as long as it takes.
“The best players will be out there to solve the problem,” said Crawford, who used to be the head of the Los Angeles battalion.
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